91制片厂 political science Professors Benjamin Melusky and Jesse Richman will lead a discussion about November鈥檚 elections in Virginia at 12:20 p.m. Oct. 31 in Room 1110 at the Darden College of Education and Professional Studies.
The event, which is sponsored by the Department of Political Science and Geography and 91制片厂鈥檚 chapter of Pi Sigma Alpha 鈥 the national political honor society, is free and open to the public. They will discuss the various candidates, issues, and races; offer some predictions for election night; and consider what the results might mean for 2024.
On Nov. 7, voters will decide on the makeup of the General Assembly. All 100 seats in the House of Delegates and 40 seats in the state Senate will be on the ballot. Democrats have a 22-18 edge in the Senate; Republicans have a 48-46 advantage in the House (there are six vacant seats). In Hampton Roads, this includes eight Senate seats and 19 House seats.
"Predicting outcomes for this election is made even more complicated given the large number of open seat races created by the most recent round of redistricting, which resulted in a large number of retirements and primary challenges earlier this year," Melusky said.
According to , 10 Senate and 32 House incumbents did not file for re-election 鈥 the largest number of retirements in both chambers since 2011. A total of 54 House and 32 Senate districts will have contested races. But only seven House and eight Senate races are seen as 鈥渂attlegrounds,鈥 according to Ballotpedia.
"When we look at the roadmap for how either the Republicans or Democrats could gain control of the General Assembly, there really are only a small number of potentially tossup seats in both chambers given that so many districts are decidedly either solidly Democratic or solidly Republican," Melusky said.
Data from the recently released 聽indicates that a large bloc of independent and undecided votes will likely determine the election outcomes locally.
Persons who identified as independents (32.2%) made up the biggest bloc, and more than 20% of respondents identified as something else or didn鈥檛 give a preference. Nearly half of the respondents did not see themselves as liberal or conservative, and more than 25% did not know or wouldn鈥檛 say which candidates they would vote for.
However, when asked about races for the House of Delegates, almost two-thirds of likely Hampton Roads voters who had made up their mind said they planned to vote for a Democratic candidate, compared to 31.3% of those who said they would vote for a Republican. That鈥檚 a significant shift from the last House election in 2021. Regarding Senate races, voters are slightly leaning more toward Republicans and less toward Democrats than they did in 2019.
And among respondents who said abortion was a very important issue, about two-thirds said they would support Democratic House and Senate candidates.